Home > View Categories > Science & Math >

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto)

Stock Image - Actual Cover May Vary


 
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we dont know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the impossible. For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we dont know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probabilitytheory. The Black Swan is a landmark book-itself a black swan.      

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Language: English

Edition: 1

Binding: Hardcover

Publisher: Random House

Publication Date: 2007-04-17

Our Price: $3.50

Used Quantity:2
ISBN: 1400063515
Quantity:

Description
 
Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Edition: 1) Hardcover


Browse for more products in the same category as this item:

View Categories > Science & Math
View Categories > Science & Math > Mathematics
View Categories > Computers & Technology
View Categories > Computers & Technology > Computer Science
View Categories > Business & Money
View Categories > Business & Money > Management & Leadership
Management & Leadership
View Categories > Business & Money > Finance
Finance
View Categories > Reference
View Categories > Reference > Almanacs & Yearbooks
Almanacs & Yearbooks
View Categories