Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto)

Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto) by Nassim Nicholas Taleb 1400067936 9781400067930
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Now in a striking new hardcover edition, Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Talebveteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swanhas written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill. This book is about luckor more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skillthe world of tradingFooled by Randomnessprovides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives. The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient worlds wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness. However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamedthe lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right timehe embodies the survival of the least fit. Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their gurus insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance. Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after readingFooled by Randomnesswe can be a little better prepared. PRAISE FORFOOLED BY RANDOMNESS : Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year [Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luthers ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church. Malcolm Gladwell, author ofBlink The book that rolled down Wall Street like a hand grenade. Maggie Mahar, author ofBull! A History of the Boom, 19821999 Fascinating . . . Taleb will grab you. Peter L. Bernstein, author ofCapital Ideas Evolving Recalls the best of scientist/essayists like Richard Dawkins . . . and Stephen Jay Gould. Michael Schrage, author ofSerious Play: How the Worlds Best Companies Simulate to Innovate We need a book like this. . . . Fun to read, refreshingly independent-minded. Robert J. Shiller, author ofIrrational Exuberance Powerful . . . loaded with crackling little insights [and] extreme brilliance. National Review If asked to name the five best books written about markets,Fooled by Randomnesswould be on my list. Jack D. Schwager, author ofMarket Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders Excellent and thought-provoking . . . an entertaining book. Financial Times

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Language: English

Edition: 2 Updated

Binding: Hardcover

Pages: 368

Publisher: Random House

Publication Date: 2008-10-14

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