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Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You
Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You by Gerd Gigerenzer 0743205561 9780743205566
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Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You by Gerd Gigerenzer

At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. <P> Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we havent learned statistical thinking, we dont understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics. <P> Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers dont understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many p

Author: Gerd Gigerenzer

Language: English

Binding: Hardcover

Pages: 320

Publisher: Simon & Schuster

Publication Date: 2002-06-05

Our Price: $9.53

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ISBN: 0743205561


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Gerd Gigerenzer  Hardcover


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